Exploring the potential for agricultural and biomass trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States
"The on-going negotiations on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements between the EU, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, the accession of Russia to the World Trade Organisation in 2012 and the establishment of a Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan in 2011 are expected to boost trade relations between the European Union and its Eastern Neighbours". The aim of AGRICISTRADE is to accompany these developments by analysing the potential impact of these trade agreements and by delivering insights on the potential developments of the food, feed and biomass sectors in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. AGRICISTRADE contributes to the analysis of the present situation, the potentials and the projection of future agri-food developments. This project will improve the understanding of present agricultural and food processing sectors in the Commonwealth of Independent States’ (CIS) by collecting and evaluating statistical data and related policies.
The central aim of the project is to provide insights into the agricultural production potentials in the 8 countries of interest, and to determine how an improved use of the presently untapped possibilities in these countries will affect international markets under evolving demand changes. A systematic, thorough approach is needed to assess current constraints in the agricultural sectors, to project future agricultural production and trade developments, and to analyze the possible implications for the EU and international markets.
Therefore, AGRICISTRADE has been structured around 4 research objectives:
- Improve the understanding of the agri-food sector performance in the context of relevant policy measures at stake in the 8 countries covered by the project
- Better understand the causes of untapped agricultural production potentials and suggest pathways for enhancing yields, land use and competitive performances
- Explore current and possible future developments in agricultural supply chains as well as developments in the different types of usage
- Enhance the analytical framework for future scenario assessments of medium- and long-term developments of the agri-food potentials and trade in order to understand what role the 8 countries could play in European and international exchanges
AGRICISTRADE will develop a comprehensive statistics and policy information database, further used to monitor the sector structure, market and policy situation, and to assess current performance. The database and evaluation results will provide input for projections on agricultural potential and implications for international trade, with a specific focus on trade relations between the EU and the 8 countries of interest. In that goal, the project will use a variety of analytical tools combining economic and biophysical models.
The project results contribute to a fact-based and well-informed dialogue among EU policy makers on possible impacts of a DCFTA on CIS agricultural development potentials.